Tuesday, October 27, 2015

The Melnick State of the Economy Unchanged in September

Moderate growth in the business sector
Domestic demand supports business sector activity
Click graph to enlarge 

The Melnick State of the Economy did not change in September 2015. The development of the Index reflects modest growth in business sector activity. The industrial production index, which reflects the supply side of the business sector, rose and corrected some of the decline of the previous month. This level does not exceed that of February 2015, reflecting the difficulty of industrial exports which continues to be affected by the weakness of economic activity in Europe, the decline in growth in China, and probably the strength of the NIS.  The revenue in commerce and services, reflecting domestic demand and mainly private consumption, increased and continues to support the business sector. The figure still does not reflect the latest terrorist attacks. The imports index, which consists mainly of imports of inputs for domestic production, but also consumer goods, declined and suggests the possibility of a decline in activity in the months ahead.  The number of employee posts in the business sector declined and perhaps that is a sign of a possible weakness in the labor market.

The September index components include: an increase of 2.8% in the index of industrial production in August, after falling 3.4% in July; an increase of 1.0% Revenue in commerce and services in August, after falling 0.5% in July; a decrease of 6.6% in the Imports Index in September, after rising 3.0% in August, and a decrease of 0.9% in the number of employee posts in the business sector in July, after falling 0.1% in June.

Click table to enlarge
Click graph to enlarge

No comments: