Monday, January 19, 2009

Melnick State of the Economy Index Declined by 1.2% in December

The Index continues to indicate a worsening in economic activity. A risk of recession is building up

The Melnick State of the Economy Index declined by 1.2 percent in December 2008. December's Index shows that the economy continues to deteriorate and that a risk of recession is building up. This month's index was influenced by an unusually strong decline of 17.5% in the December Import index. This weakening includes a decline in the import of production imputs reflecting a deterioration in local production and a decline of import of consumption goods, which reflcts a decline in the import of automobiles as a result of expectations of a reduction of prices. In the two main components of the index, the revenue in the commerce and services and the Industrial production index, the decline continues.

The components of the December Index include: a decrease of 0.7% in the Industrial production index in November, after an increase of 0,3% in October; a decrease of 0.4% in the revenue in commerce and services in November, after an decrease of 2.3% in October; a sharp decrease of 17.5% in the Imports index in December, after an increase of 0.6% in November, and a decrease of 1.9% in the number of employee positions in the business sector in September, after a decrease of 2.5% in August.

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